Trade-Off Consumer Spring 2026

Household Budgets: Awkwardly bent, but not yet broken

Big Chalk continues its acclaimed Trade-Off Consumer research series with our Spring 2026 update. How are things looking halfway through 2026?

Iran-War-related pressures have cut into household gross budget surpluses. Yet for now consumers keep spending… (Due to strong prior savings, net household budgets remain healthy). There are many perils facing consumer brands, but Big Chalk is cautiously optimistic for the back half of the year.

At 34.5% of the total U.S., the Trade-Off Consumer population held flat semi-annually and is directionally up only one percentage point year-on-year… but the demographic composition is changing.  Flat Trade-Off Consumer growth should be an encouraging economic signal – but pressure on middle-income and upper middle-income households remains troubling.

Nonetheless, U.S. consumers traveled in 1H26. Airline passenger loads and revenue were up in Q1, and not all of it came from high-earners. Out-of-Home Dining and some Grocery trends have also turned positive. Despite some concerns, we see more to like than dislike in 2H26 -- but that doesn't mean brands can sit on their heels.

For more details on the state of consumer's budgets and how they're approaching different categories, download the report.