Trade-Off Consumer Fall 2025 - What to Expect in 2026

Nearly two years have passed since Big Chalk launched its groundbreaking Trade-Off Consumer research series. What's changing with this pivotal consumer segment and the U.S. economy at large?

Big Chalk sees no flashing red indicators heading into 2026, and the mainstream consumer sentiment indices (like University of Michigan and Conference Board) continue to get the context wrong. But the concept of an “Affordability Crisis” is more reality than fiction.

Consumers are spending more and getting less in key categories, and their changing shopping habits are rewriting the CPG and retail playbook -- switching down from premium brands to volume brands and switching down to smaller pack sizes in a statistically significant way compared with 2024. They're making more store trips looking for deals, as well...

How should leaders of consumer brands approach 2026? Download this report to find out.