GLP-1s and CPGs, Fall 2025 Industry Update

In June 2025, Big Chalk reported that GLP-1 medications reached a household penetration rate at which their impact on grocery volumes could not be ignored. GLP-1 household penetration has grown since June, but considering some advances and announcements in the industry, perhaps not as quickly as expected… yet.

Expanded Medicare coverage for GLP-1s, a slew of recently announced direct-to-consumer price cuts, and the promise of the medication in pill form, all could push adoption above our current projections. And while GLP-1 users are trading down their soda and potato-chip pack sizes at much higher rates than the U.S. average, these aren't the only categories to see pack size trade-downs.

Read about other CPG categories affected and get additional data on Big Chalk's projections for GLP-1 adoption in our latest report.