An Update on CPG Retail & The Trade-Off Consumer

Big Chalk’s Mid-2025 Learnings on the CPG Retail Space

As the entire economy waits for the other shoe to drop, with respect to tariff impact and at-shelf prices, the typical U.S. consumer is proceeding mostly business-as-usual. As reported in related Big Chalk Trade-Off Consumer reports, the state of U.S. household budgets is strong… for now.

But some indicators do add a note of caution to the positive spending data, and as with most things, the devil is in the details:

Consumers are actively – and consistently –  trying to cut the volume of CPG and grocery products they buy.

Consumers’ attempts to consume less food may be driven by factors outside of household budget – and this has both positive and negative implications for CPG retailers. (See Big Chalk's separate report on GLP-1 medication for more details.)

The game is changing (again) for retailers, and what it takes to win is also changing (with respect to brand-building and assortment) – as explained in the final section of this report.

Learn more by downloading our report.